Michael Scales

(JollofNews) – Firstly, may I congratulate President Adama Barrow on becoming the new elected president of the Gambia. The fate of Mr Jammeh is yet to be decided.

Many people have tried to second-guess Mr Jammeh for too many years, but he generally proves everyone wrong and does something that so many people never anticipated.

As the Ecowas forces gather in large numbers by air, sea and land, we have very little knowledge from Mr Jammeh as to what he will do at this late hour. All we know is he is in the State House in Banjul. His loyal Chief of Defense Staff, General Ousman Bargie appeared relaxed yesterday, posing for photos with tourists, allegedly claiming that he loves his soldiers and they won’t fight no stupid war with fellow Ecowas forces, this is a political matter.

One strategy could be to allow Ecowas forces into the Gambia up to the gates of the State House where Gambian troops could form a cordon around  President Jammeh with orders not to fire unless fired upon first.

The president of Mauritania, Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz, could be carrying a message to President Macky Sall of Senegal, stating that Mr Jammeh intends to stay put until his petition is heard by a properly convened panel of Supreme Court judges.

Meanwhile, President Barrow could take over the reins of government and several situations could arise from this not least that the governments of foreign nationals, would not allow their tourists to return until this legal dispute is settled due to the heavy military presence.

Senegalese troops heading into Gambia

Trade would be affected to some degree and key government staff could be absent. The transition would be anything but smooth as so many of Mr Jammeh’s ministers are not in office. This would to some degree paralyse the day-to-day business of citizens and stall key services such as tax collection.

This is my summary based upon the knowledge of today and observing former President Jammeh for so many years. This would also place Ecowas forces in an unenviable dilemma, which could only be broken if ordered to shoot by Ecowas governments. I cannot see that happening.

Mr Jammeh is a very single minded man and generally is at least two steps ahead of the rest. But I thought I would pen my thoughts. Of course this is Africa. It usually works out differently.