(JollofNews) – While listening to my friend Pa Nderry M’bai of Freedom Newspaper’s rather hysterical “Election Night Analysis” on the 6th of April 2017, I sent him an e-mail to dampen his “I am soooo happy tonight” hysteria. I told him that “my information is UDP has won 32 seats”. That did it! Pa calmed down!

The problem with Pa is that he has lived in Yankee-Land too long. There the press think they decide the elections, not the voters. New York Times was the most hysterical of the “liberal media” in the last US Elections – and they are still trying to have Trump impeached!

More than a month before the Elections, on the 4th of March 2017 precisely, I stated that UDP and allied NRP/GMC/PPP would get 30 seats. See here.

The subsequent virulent, mainly online, attacks on the UDP leader Lawyer Ousainou Darboe stiffened the back of his supporters and the UDP has by itself ended up gaining 31 seats – that is 58% of the elected Members of Parliament (NAMs). UDP’s long-term ally Hamat Bah’s NRP has taken 5 seats – that is 9% of the elected NAMs. These two firm allies have 67% of the directly elected NAMs needed for fundamental constitutional changes. Mai Fatty’s GMC got no seats, but that does not matter really since GMC leader and Interior Minister Mai Fatty’s powerful Interior Minister position is in the gift of the UDP leadership of Lawyer Ousainou Darboe and President Adama Barrow: Mai Fatty’s position is secure for the next five years (barring a serious mishap).

Mama Kandeh’s GDC received only 5 seats, but I am not surprised at that because Mama Kandeh’s impressive Presidential Elections performance was due to his former position as an APRC MP (there were unfounded rumours at the time that Mama Kandeh may infact have been a plant by Yahya Jammeh to divide the opposition votes – but Mama Kandeh’s presence ended up taking more votes from Yahya Jammeh himself!). GDC/Mama Kandeh’s best bet is probably to join the UDP – with Mama Kandeh being offered a cabinet post once he agrees not to oppose the UDP’s next Presidential candidate (likely to be the sitting President Adama Barrow). Rather poetically, the GDC and the former dictator’s party the APRC have tied at 5 seats each – and the Minority Leader of the Opposition would come from them.

Read the full article here.